Jan 27, 2026
3 min read
How to put the 2026. The markets in the new year with hard-hard and damage to above.Problems, the opportunities and a lot of values.
After an exceptional year in 2025, when global stock markets rose by more than 20%, financial markets welcome 2026 in a completely different tone.Euphoria gave way to caution and an uneasy feeling: the notion that everything would continue to be smooth sailing, just as the risks began to pile up.
This overconfidence is an important warning from the latest Bank of America survey.According to the survey, a significant portion of investors are not ready for a correction in the stock market, which has lacked protection against a sharp decline since 2018. The study's own data confirms this figure: a net 38% of respondents at the beginning of the year expected the level of liquidity to be historically low from the end of 2024 and the allocation to stocks to be the highest. It is no coincidence that under the leadership of Michael Hartnett, "team-generated sentiment" reached "extremepanic".Translation: the market is confident... maybe more than cautious.
An increasingly crowded market
Much of that optimism is based on a small group of big tech companies.In recent years, the S&P 500 has thrived, driven by the so-called "big seven," because investments in the index's capitalization weights have, in practice, meant that a very significant portion of the risk is only a dozen warrants.However, the history of the markets is clear.Gaining equal weight from the rotation to the S&P 500.It would not be a statistical anomaly.Improve risk-adjusted returns.
This change to be more selective can also be seen in the comments of the manager.Pictet Asset Management shares a more flexible view after years of double-digit growth.They expect higher profits and maintain a more equitable distribution.They believe in the power of artificial intelligence, but warn of the growing diversity in their respective sectors: when some companies are forced to borrow money to fund large investments in data centers, some companies will maintain a strong balance sheet and operate the stock market the same way.For AI managers entering a new phase, the focus will shift from the cycle of massive investment in infrastructure and finance to software applications and the use of technology.At the same time, they will identify opportunities in the defense sector, such as health and biotechnology, with attractive prices, strong balance sheets and good context for corporate institutions in the face of companies that have expired key patents in the coming years.
Furthermore, there is a common difference in technology transfer: energy.“There is no artificial intelligence without energy,” more and more analysts repeat.In Spain, some companies such as Acciona Energía, Redeia or Merlin Properties see a defensive way of playing this trend, especially due to the risk of developing critical infrastructure and data centers.
Globally, another sector is gaining weight in portfolios: defence.Global military spending has reached a record high and is undergoing a profound transformation beyond volume, with increasing demand for advanced technology ranging from specialized chips to cyber security.For many investors, the sector is consolidating as a structural trend driven by an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment and low correlation with the economic cycle.In this context, more and more portfolios are choosing to manage this exposure through defensive index ETFs, which allow them to capture the growth of the sector without taking on the specific risk of a single company, providing diversification and cost efficiency.
Search for fixed income, cryptocurrencies and protection
Prudence transfers to the credit market.In the fixed income sector, high valuations are forcing us to narrow our options more than ever before.Corporate fundamentals remain fairly strong, debt levels remain subdued, and the quality of the high-yield segment has improved, which may keep default rates below historical averages.However, with tight ranges, there is less margin for error and active management becomes essential.
In parallel, cryptocurrencies will face a very different situation by 2026 compared to previous periods.The debate is no longer about their survival, but about their role in the portfolio.Bitcoin is beginning to be considered a strategic macro allocation;Ethereum reinforces the thesis supported by cash flows;and increased institutional interest are driving diversified individual betting portfolios.Less story and more structure.
Illiquid assets are re-emerging as a possible defense against inflation. However, there is a clear case for seeking high enough returns to compensate for the lack of liquidity and long time horizons.In this area, managers prioritize mid-sized companies and projects with real capacity to create value, moving away from mature and fully exploited assets.
Smart companies and the gray elephant in the room
But prudence is not just a matter of markets.This is also reflected in the spirit of business.According to the latest PwC poll presented at the World Economic Forum in Davos, only 38% of Spanish CEOs have confidence in revenue growth by 2026, the lowest level in five years.A fact that reflects an increasingly complex decision-making environment, persistent geopolitical uncertainties, increasing cyber risks and large investments in artificial intelligence.difficulties in translating into consistent and predictable financial returns.As a result, strategic caution is greater as companies prioritize efficiency, cost control and medium-term visibility over aggressive expansion plans.
Adding to this loss of visibility is a structural factor that transcends the economic cycle and drives the long term: demographic aging.Continued declines in birth rates and increases in life expectancy are increasingly burdening pension systems, health care costs, and long-term care services, while shrinking the active population base.This is the so-called "grey elephant": a widely known and predictable but systematically delayed risk that will have direct consequences for potential growth, financial stability and investment decisions in the coming decades.A silent challenge that, without deep reforms, threatens to become one of the main economic obstacles of the future.
Training and realistic expectations
In the context of reduced business visibility, increased demographic pressure, and more complex markets, the way you approach investment becomes important. Interestingly, it is young investors who show a more creative vision of the future. According to a report from Fidelity International, those under the age of 35 expect higher returns and are more confident that their portfolio will help them achieve their long-term financial goals. It is not just a generational optimism. They have time, the most valuable asset in investing, an important ingredient for absorbing volatility, gradually taking risks and reaping the benefits of compound interest.
It is this logic that explains the success of careers like that of Warren Buffett, whose wealth is based not only on choosing good companies, but on the discipline of staying invested for decades, without being swayed by short-term noise.In an environment marked by uncertainty, the real difference is usually not in predicting the next market move, but in maintaining a consistent strategy over time.
However, over a product or fad, the competition of the sale of purchase of sales, the nature and penalty.The information indicates that the most powerful decisions are supported by training, exchange and electing products and choosing products can give a change in all the time.It is below the actions like a focus of Investment Strates, radar of the financial amount of bank accounts like subjects,And the truth of the money is given by Investment Strates in 2025, continued to reveal and maintenance to the gallery of the exactions.
And before any specific product, the first rule of investment continues to be education.Only the investor who understands the risks, cycles and tools at his disposal can strive to turn volatility into opportunity and noise into wealth.This is the philosophy that has guided investment strategies for over two decades, combining independent analysis and organizing free courses and seminars, to ensure that well-educated investors can win in the stock market on a recurring basis.So we have organized our most complete course to learn how to invest with our method: the Stock Market and Trading practical course, conducted by the Investment Strategies analysis team, focused on short-, medium- and long-term investments with stocks, futures, ETFs and mutual funds.
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